Presumptive Republican nominee
tapping of Wisconsin Rep.
to be his running mate has prompted a cascade of commentary about Romney’s purported abandonment of Latino voters.
“Has Mitt Romney given up on the Latino vote?”
the Christian Science Monitor asked in a headline. In
University of Washington Professor
ran through a gamut of key issues on which Latino voters’ preferences clash with that of Ryan.
Here in Chicago, commentator
did a
before concluding that she “can’t find a single area in which Ryan helps Romney with Latinos, and in at least the crucial state of Florida, Ryan’s negatives are strong enough to actually lose votes.
“Nice work, governor,” she wrote.
But supporters of
might want to hold off on popping the proverbial champagne about this predicted development.
That’s because the incumbent has his own Latino problem that can be gleaned from looking at registered voter data we received from
, director of the Hispanic Outreach Program at the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners via Hoy Sales Director
The good news for Obama is that the number of registered Latino voters has essentially doubled from 108,344 in Feb. 1990 to 215,674 in August 2012. Registered Latino voter growth has outpaced the 43 percent growth of all Latinos in the city.
This growth has occurred at a time when overall voter registration has dropped 7 percent from 1.41 million to 1.31 million.
This would seem to augur well for a candidate for whom Latinos provided the margins of victory in battleground states Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada in 2008, according to
But a closer look at the data reveals the challenge Obama may face on November 6.
The largest increase in voter registration for Latinos since 2005 in Chicago came between February 2008 and November 2008.
During that time, the ranks of registered Latino voters in the city jumped 13 percent from 192,974 to 217,248.
Presumably, many of these voters were drawn to Candidate Obama’s soaring rhetoric of transformational change and promises to make comprehensive immigration reform a reality.
Four years and the highest level of deportations in American history later, many Latinos’ enthusiasm for President Obama seems to have ebbed.
That trend is visible in the ranks of Chicago Latino registered voters.
From February 2012 to August 2012, the number of these voters increased just 4,643, or 2 percent, to 215,674-a total that is lower than the November 2008 levels.
Admittedly, there is still time to register for the November election, so the ultimate totals may not be that different.
Obama’s June decision to create the possibility of “Dreamers” who came here as young children to gain work permits and Social Security numbers for two years
in the Latino community.
Still and yet, Obama’s political future may well lie with a group that, while having very little reason to support his opponent, may also struggle to muster the same passion in November that helped propel him so memorably to victory nearly four years ago.
