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Coming out of the “golden era” of the 1990s, California winemakers enter 2000 with an evolving appreciation of site selection and a knack for turning bad weather, and worse bugs, into opportunity.

What should consumers expect to see in the near future? Two influential vintners from the Napa and Sonoma Valleys are putting their faith in research and the public’s willingness to pay for high-end wine. And a Santa Barbara County vintner predicts wine drinkers will put down their glasses of cabernet, merlot and chardonnay in favor of pinot noir, syrah and even pinot gris, if winemakers make it taste good.

Tim Mondavi, winegrower for Napa Valley’s Robert Mondavi Winery, believes the two most important factors for his family’s winery during the 1990s were a greater understanding of the soil and the formation of appellations, or growing districts, in Napa Valley.

This understanding came to Mondavi courtesy of a potential disaster: the 1980s phylloxera epidemic. Named for the tiny louse that eats the roots of grape vines, phylloxera forced firms to spend millions to replant more than 70 percent of the valley’s vineyards.

But the replanting was an opportunity too. Instead of the single, phylloxera-susceptible rootstock they had relied on, growers were able to select rootstocks that would make the most of specific sites.

The forced replanting has “truly elevated the consciousness of viticulture a few quantum leaps,” Mondavi said. Without the pressure of phylloxera, certain vineyard research might have taken longer. High-density planting, for instance, has allowed Mondavi to plant six times more vines in some vineyards while improving fruit quality. This research has been intertwined with better farming practices and more gentle handling of the grapes at the winery.

“Great wine starts with the soil,” Mondavi said. “Then you look at climate and then get your people involved.” His winery has been at the forefront when it comes to recognizing the differences in various growing districts within Napa, producing a cabernet sauvignon from Oakville as well as the Stags Leap District. Mondavi also looks for a higher profile for merlot in the cool Carneros district in southern Napa.

“We have a good sense of where we want to take our wines–the highest end,” Mondavi said.

In Sonoma, Fred and Peggy Furth own Chalk Hill Estate. Successful in the 1980s, the winery elevated its operation in every aspect in the 1990s. The 1,200-acre property includes 275 acres of vines chosen for their affinity to specific sites. For example, the winery is emphasizing merlot over cabernet sauvignon, for which the estate has fewer sites that can ripen the grapes. “We are growing what is best for the estate,” said winemaker Bill Knuttel.

Knuttel called the 1990s “a golden era.” The decade produced many great vintages in California. And even such difficult seasons as 1998 and 1999 will produce terrific wines, he believes, because his fellow winemakers have become better at their tasks. In his case, Knuttel mentioned the advantage of skilled blending.

“That’s where I have paid much of my attention with winemaking,” he said. “There are a lot of ways you can put it all together. It took me a lot of years to fine-tune that.”

The Furths are putting their faith for the future of Chalk Hill and California in such moves as clonal research at their estate. Fred Furth noted that this is critical as the public buys more expensive wines.

“The top end of the market has continued to grow,” he said. Furth, a trial lawyer, has noticed that consumers at wine tastings “take their job very seriously,” much as a jury does.

The Furths also believe that wineries have to play up the connection between food and wine. To that end, the winery has an executive chef and a Web site on food-wine pairing.

In Santa Barbara County, Bryan Babcock has been winemaker at his family’s estate since their first vintage in 1984. Lying in the cool western reaches of the Santa Ynez Valley, the winery is best known for its small lots of intense chardonnays and pinot noirs. With all the fame Babcock has achieved as a vintner, he has a refreshingly simple approach to winemaking.

“I’m not a big fan of peculiarities in wines. I like wines that smell good and taste good.”

Throughout the 1990s Babcock sharpened his skills in the vineyards and the cellar. Recognizing that pinot noir grapes need a lot of sunlight, he went through the vineyards removing leaves for better exposure. When he aged sangiovese at the winery, he discovered that the grape does not take oak aging as well as other varietals, so he has experimented with larger casks to minimize the effect.

Babcock said his work in the ’90s led him to a better understanding of the craft and its fundamentals.

“It’s like cooking,” he said. “You need to know the right temperature, when the food goes in, how long it stays there.” As a person progresses, “the better you get at developing the recipe or stylizing the wine.”

“The challenge is balance. The wines need to be expressive without being out of whack–have I gone too far or not?”

Babcock predicted a shift in red wine consumption away from cabernet sauvignon and merlot toward more food-friendly varietals such as pinot noir and syrah. As for whites, Babcock believes pinot gris (a k a pinot grigio) will challenge chardonnay. Although others have predicted great things for sauvignon blanc and viognier, those two grapes have not caught on. Babcock believes pinot gris has “great sipping potential” along with compatibility with foods from several different cuisines, especially from Latin America and Asia.

Despite acknowledging and even pursuing higher prices for premium California wines, these vintners believe prices are fair, given their costs. But knowing that young drinkers are looking for less expensive wines, larger wineries will continue to make them.