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There are few sure things in pop music, but bet on this: Natalie Maines and the rest of the Dixie Chicks know exactly what Kelly Clarkson is going through right now, and not just because they all are from Texas.

With a career-at-the-crossroads album, “My December” (RCA), coming out Tuesday, Clarkson is shaping up as this year’s version of the Dixie Chicks.

The Chicks tried to reinvent themselves on their 2006 album, “Taking the Long Way,” while ticking off radio programmers and the White House, alienating fans and canceling under-selling tour dates with their increasing outspokenness. A few days ago, Clarkson canceled her summer arena tour because of poor ticket sales and fired her manager. She’s also been feuding with the chairman of her record label, Clive Davis, over the direction of her new album.

Sound familiar?

Here’s the kicker: “Taking the Long Way” wasn’t nearly the radical departure from the Chicks’ country-pop sound that last year’s uproar suggested, and neither is “My December” the radio-phobic dud Davis apparently believes it is. On the contrary, it’s fascinating that pop albums so well-crafted, so thoroughly middle-of-the-road, so undeniably catchy in spite of their more personal lyrical tone, could stir up such outrage.

For the Chicks’ fall from grace, politics certainly played a major role in how the music was perceived. They had the temerity to criticize President Bush for invading Iraq, and their fan base protested by refusing to buy their albums and concert tickets. For Clarkson, it’s politics of a different sort that threatens her career. Without the enthusiastic support of Davis — a powerbroker who launched the careers of Janis Joplin, Carlos Santana, Bruce Springsteen, Barry Manilow and Whitney Houston, among others — Clarkson could find herself short of the kind of marketing muscle required to prop up a major hit.

The Clarkson-Davis spat says a lot about how our entertainment gurus like to package things for consumers in neat little boxes. And when an entertainer tries to push out of that box, the gurus get nervous. They fear that change and growth can’t be good, because those variables make it more difficult to predict public acceptance and massive sales. To follow that logic, Kelly Clarkson and the Dixie Chicks would’ve been better off by staying exactly as they once were, rather than jeopardizing their record companies’ profit margins by thinking for themselves.

Art vs. commerce

The Clarkson controversy offers the latest twist on the old art vs. commerce debate, and the stakes are unusually high: Clarkson not only won the first “American Idol” competition in 2002, which instantly elevated the Texas waitress to celebrity status, she made something of it. After a mild-mannered debut album, she racked up 10 million sales and two Grammy Awards with her 2004 release, “Breakaway.” The record was more aggressive in tone, and recast Clarkson as an Avril Lavigne-style pop-rocker, with production from John Shanks (who has worked with Ashlee Simpson) and Max Martin (the songwriter-producer behind Britney Spears). Not exactly groundbreaking, but it showed there was more to Clarkson than originally imagined.

Buoyed by that success, RCA is counting on “My December” to lift the label out of the sales doldrums. In the past, the big labels counted on their biggest hitters, whether U2, Madonna or Mariah Carey, to rack up huge numbers to make up for the rest of the underperforming albums on the roster. With sales down 16 percent industrywide this year, the pressure is on Clarkson to deliver a blockbuster.

It’s a sick business model, but it’s the world that Clive Davis helped create and that “American Idol” has plugged into. As the most successful of the “Idol” singers, Clarkson was groomed to play by the rules, and on her first two albums she pretty much did as she was told.

But “My December” finds Clarkson trying to develop a personality. Bad idea, in the eyes of King Clive. Davis’ criticism of the disc stems in part from his time-tested belief that an artist’s success hinges on catchy pop singles, and he was distressed that Clarkson stopped working with the producers who helped her craft “Breakaway.” He didn’t feel the songwriting was up to snuff, and he told Clarkson as much a few weeks ago.

As the title would suggest, “My December” isn’t exactly the feel-good album of the year. A nasty breakup underlines many of the lyrics and betrayal and despair shade many of the songs. The kickoff track, “Never Again,” echoes the spiteful tone of Alanis Morissette’s 1995 breakthrough hit, “You Oughta Know.”

“I hope the ring you gave to her/Turns her finger green/I hope when you’re in bed with her/You think of me,” Clarkson hisses.

On “Sober,” she compares her recovery from a soured relationship to an alcoholic addiction she can’t shake. “Irvine” concludes the album with a last-ditch prayer, a sparse tour de force built on voice, acoustic guitar and a wordless backing choir. It makes an impact in part because it’s so totally unexpected: No listener coming to this track cold would guess that the singer ever had anything to do with “American Idol” and its florid displays of ballad-belting.

No pity party

Yet, despite its sometimes wrenching lyrics, “My December” doesn’t come off as a pity party. The radio-friendly hooks — and the potential hits — are still very much in evidence. Producer David Kahne (who produced hit albums by Sugar Ray and Sublime) knows how to massage songs into shiny objects designed for mass consumption as well as the singer’s previous producers did. “Haunted” pushes the singer into the goth-pop terrain of Evanescence. And the petulant guitar pop of “Don’t Waste Your Time” sounds as if it would’ve fit nicely on Lavigne’s latest album, which has been in the Billboard Top 10 for weeks.

Kahne also deftly replicates some moves from his old new-wave days with Romeo Void and the Bangles, and the punchy guitar riffs in “Hole” and “How I Feel,” the jabbing keyboards of “One Minute” and “Judas” and the faux-soul horns of “Yeah” suit Clarkson well.

Even when she professes to feel numb, as on “Hole,” Clarkson doesn’t wallow in histrionics. Though she occasionally flirts with the showboating vocal tics that “Idol” has turned into a national pastime, for the most part her performances are lean and combative. The songs are all pretty conventionally structured, and build to the type of choruses her fans — including those from the “Idol” days — will expect and recognize.

It’s a smartly accomplished pop album, nothing more, nothing less, and it shows Clarkson is going to be around a bit longer than the 15 minutes allotted to even the most celebrated “Idols” contestants.

Like the Dixie Chicks, she’s probably going to take a hit at the box office. But like her fellow Texans, she’s starting to earn something she once lacked: credibility.

The key question then becomes: If sales dive, will Clarkson still insist on taking the high road?

Or will she even have that choice?

– – –

A long ‘December’ for Kelly Clarkson

Summer 2006: Recording begins on what will become Kelly Clarkson’s third album, “My December.”

April 13, 2007: “Never Again,” the first single from “My December,” is released to radio.

May 2007: Rumors surface that Sony BMG head Clive Davis is dissatisfied with the album and wants Clarkson to rework a significant portion. Clarkson will tell “Elle” magazine (for its July issue) that Davis offered her $10 million to cut five songs.

May 23, 2007: The rumors gain some traction when, during the sixth season finale of “American Idol,” Davis lauds other former Idols but notably fails to mention Clarkson’s new single or album.

June 6, 2007: A second single, “Sober,” from “My December” is released to radio.

June 8, 2007: “My December” leaks onto Internet file-sharing sites.

June 11, 2007: Clarkson fires her manager, Jeff Kwatinetz, and parts ways with her management company, The Firm.

June 14, 2007: Clarkson cancels her “My December” summer tour — her first nationwide arena tour — citing sluggish ticket sales.

June 26, 2007: “My December” due to be released.

Sources: kellyclarkson.com; mtv.com; grammy.com; www.theleaksource.blogspot.com; kckellyville.com

— Ft. Worth Star-Telegram

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greg@gregkot.com