MESA, Ariz. — Sabermetrics once was considered a four-letter word in the Cubs organization, where scouting reports trumped statistical analysis almost every time.
Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, a former scout, surrounds himself with veteran scouts who share his views on analyzing players through someone’s eyes.
But things may be changing.
New Chairman Tom Ricketts told fans at the Cubs Convention he expects the organization to use sabermetrics as a tool more often for player decisions and evaluating opponents while still valuing the human component.
The Cubs didn’t hire a full-time numbers cruncher until Chuck Wasserstrom was named manager of baseball information after the 2003 season.
“We’ve always done more than people thought,” Hendry said. “… We’ve always factored that in. But I’m always going to be a scouting guy first. You can skew statistics to frame it the way you like it.
“Some statistics that a lot of people think are always vital to making decisions, they should be a part of the equation, but not the be-all, end-all. … You factor a lot of stuff in, not just ‘Oh gee, that guy has a high or low on-base percentage.’ “
According to the numbers, Hendry seemed to make the right moves when he signed free agents Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles last year. Bradley led the American League in OBPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) with the Rangers in 2008, while Miles hit .392 in day games with the Cardinals, which made him a perfect fit for a team that plays more day games than any other.
But both flopped badly with the Cubs.
The Cubs made only two significant free agent signings for this season, giving Marlon Byrd and three-year deal and Xavier Nady one year.
Cubs scouts like what Byrd and Nady can bring to the offense, and their personalities were also a factor because improving team chemistry was a priority.
“When it comes to crunch-time, believe me, all the (statistical) information has been processed,” Hendry said. “But by the end of the day … I’m going to look at (scouting advisers) Kenny Kravec or Dave Littlefield or Gary Hughes, and say: ‘This is what I think. What do you think?’ “
The Cubs put a different emphasis on some numbers than others because of day baseball. Wasserstrom pointed out “two different types of games” can be played at Wrigley Field because of the cold, wet springs and the humid, windy summers. With smaller parks the rage these days, Wrigley is not the comparative “bandbox” it once was.
“With a smaller park, you would think that has something to do with (power numbers), but our park doesn’t play as small as it used to, and by and large, most players are better on the home side,” Wasserstrom said. “You don’t look at that as much, but you definitely pay attention to day vs. night because of the amount of games we play during the day.”
Teams always have paid attention to statistics, but now there are many more numbers to be devoured. And with Web sites like BaseballProspectus.com and Fangraphs,com, fans virtually have unlimited access to numbers as well.
“You make your final call factoring all that in, but you certainly weigh heavily on the guy sitting in the stands who’s working for you,” Hendry said. “(But) we all know the days are gone when you just scout and don’t do anything else.”
psullivan@tribune.com
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