In many arenas of life, the secret of happiness is knowing when to stop. Eating, drinking, exercise and spending are fine activities up to a point, but overdoing any of them can leave you with pain and regret.
When it comes to the presidency, though, the usual assumption is that if one term is good, two must be better. Four of the last six presidents have been re-elected. Yet as President Bush might attest right now, a second term may be one too many. After the 2004 election, Bush had reason to feel good. He won by a comfortable margin that seemed to vindicate his policies. He said he had accumulated political capital that he intended to spend in the pursuit of his policy goals. But the biggest item on his agenda, reforming Social Security, was a bust, and a difficult situation in Iraq quickly got worse. Before long, he was waking up last Nov. 8 and asking the license number of the semitrailer truck that had run him over.
If it’s any consolation, his experience is more the norm than the exception. A new book from The Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research captures the phenomenon in the title — “Second-Term Blues.” As editors John Fortier and Norman Ornstein point out, “Second terms have not been good to American presidents. They often are characterized by hubris, burnout, a paucity of new or bold ideas and are plagued by scandal, party infighting, lack of legislative success and loss of seats in the midterm election.” Sound familiar?
Just about every president (excepting James K. Polk and Calvin Coolidge, who left of their own accord) thinks his second term will be a success, but the expectation is almost invariably wrong. Dwight Eisenhower endured a recession and a scandal involving his chief of staff, Richard Nixon was consumed by Watergate and Bill Clinton suffered impeachment. Ronald Reagan had the Iran-contra scandal, but managed to revive his presidency through a historic arms control agreement with Mikhail Gorbachev, who was unwittingly on his way to dismantling the Soviet Union. Bush has fared even worse than his predecessors. At this point, Clinton had an approval rating of 58 percent, Reagan 48 percent and Eisenhower 62 percent — while Bush languishes at 33 percent in the Gallup poll.
But the president shouldn’t be too pessimistic. Circumstances can change in unforeseen ways. History may judge him more kindly than current opinion polls. And if there are days when he thinks his decision to run for re-election was a big mistake, he can take comfort that at least it’s one he will never repeat.
